tender fork – Is there community cut up threat for Taproot activation with two releases (Bitcoin Core and Bitcoin Taproot)?
Each tender fork or consensus change includes a (very small) non-zero threat of a community cut up. That threat is significantly decrease for a tender fork than say a tough fork (the place all nodes have to improve). That is why tender forks aren’t tried each month or yr. All you are able to do is decrease that threat.
Aaron lays out some eventualities which might be theoretically doable. Any incompatibility between “Bitcoin Core” and “Bitcoin Taproot” through the Speedy Trial deployment is in my opinion extremely unlikely. If Speedy Trial fails to activate and we attain November 2022 (please observe 2022 not 2021) with out miners activating then we’re in an identical situation to the UASF in 2017 the place it is determined by what the financial majority is operating. I can not predict what the financial majority can be operating in November 2022 however I extremely suspect the delaying of Taproot activation can be on the prime of everybody’s minds.
You do need to weigh up these dangers of a community cut up with miners intentionally blocking Taproot activation doubtlessly ceaselessly. If we had been to say no extra UASFs ever once more as a result of we do not wish to take any community cut up threat that might be handing miners a everlasting veto to dam the activations of soppy forks which have group consensus. So it’s a must to weigh up the danger of the latter which might be simply as regarding (if no more regarding) to individuals.
So in abstract these are refined trade-offs. Plenty of builders have labored arduous to attenuate the danger of a community cut up. Nevertheless it does not get to zero until you actually by no means strive a tender fork once more. And that might imply that Bitcoin would by no means critically enhance once more.